A Look at the S&P

Here are a couple of S&P charts with the TLT Trender v2 indicator. One is the 4 hour chart and the other is the daily. I generally look at these two time frames when trading equity indexes. Here's the 4 hour chart:Well, there are both bullish and potential bearish indications on the 4 hour chart. I would say that the blue bar reading along with the positive fisher ma reading tells me that the S&P will likely be going higher in the near future...within the next couple of weeks. This is not for sure of course, however, I feel that the odds are with the up move. I'll still be waiting for a green bar buy signal before jumping in.

And here is the daily chart: The daily chart is in a buy mode (green bar), but as you can see from the above chart, we're stuck in a range. I'll be watching the key levels (approx. 945 on the upside and 890 on the downside) to look for signs of what is to come. We could see a big move higher if the S&P breaks above and holds the 945 level. The opposite with a close below 890.

I'll be looking for a buy signal on the 4 hour and then hop on when/if it registers. If it does, I'd be willing to bet that it is simultaneous to a break out on the daily chart. We'll see.

TLT

Summertime Slowdown

If you've checked in with this blog lately, you probably noticed that I haven't been posting very much. This seems to be a good time of the year to slow down a little and take care of some other things that need attention. I'll still be posting, just not as frequently.

TLT

This video is not about trading but...

the concepts that she discusses are just as relevant to trading as they are to any other part of your life. Yeah, she comes across as a little goofy (or weird) but check it out.

Weekly Wisdom Quote

“The market reflects all the jobber knows about the condition of the textile trade; all the banker knows about the money market; all the best-informed president knows of his own business, together with his knowledge of all other businesses; it sees the general condition of transportation in a way that the president of no single railroad can ever see; it is better informed on crops than the farmer or even the Department of Agriculture. In fact, the market reduces to a bloodless verdict all knowledge bearing on finance both domestic and foreign."

Charles Dow

Trade Review: GPB/USD

I caught a good move on the GPB/USD this morning while trading on the 5 minute chart. Most of my trades are based on the hourly time frame, but I'll also use the 5 minute time frame quite a bit. I noticed some good price action while Geithner was speaking this morning and then I waited for the buy signal. Here's the chart: Generally I wait for a yellow bar to exit long positions but this morning I knew that I would be away from my computer for a while so I just set a profit target. Coincidentally, the fisher MA crossed over the 1 line at about the same time the profit target was reached. As is noted on the chart, the fisher MA crossing the 1 line can be a sign that an uptrend is beginning to wane. This turned out to be a well planned and executed trade...and I got over 100 pips of profit from it.

Have a good day.

TLT

Bought OSK Today

I decided to buy the dip this morning and purchase a little OSK. I got in at $12.90. Here's a chart with my entry and exit plans:We'll see how this one turns out. I like buying the breakouts after a pullback into resistance and this one is a near perfect scenario for that setup.

TLT

Update on the Pound

The TLT Trender v2 gave a sell signal on the Pound Friday afternoon and then it gave a short signal early this morning. Here's the chart:Needless to say, I'm short right now. We could see a decent move down given that douple top formation that recently formed.

On a different front, the first automated system based on the TLT Trender v2 has been coded and is now in the testing phase. I had it coded with lots of different options in order to make it as flexible and diverse as possible. I've been pretty busy the past few days running tests and trying to work out a few kinks (like the system not exiting on a sell signal...has only happend a couple of times but still...yikes). I'll post about the system sometime later in the week.

The equities markets are selling off a little today, which is probably a good thing because these type of dips offer good entry points. I'll be keeping an eye on OSK today and if it looks good, I might buy the dip.

Have a good day.

TLT

Weekly Wisdom Quote

“A doctor goes to medical school for four years before practicing medicine; a lawyer goes to law school for three years before beginning the practice of law; why then does a sufficient amount of money with which to trade qualify an unschooled individual to be a trader?”

W.D. Gann

Pound Potentially Offering Up Another Great Trade

The Pound is rockin' again, and I'm long once again...because my system gave a buy on the hourly time frame a couple of days ago. The currency pair is at a pivotal point...a point where it may form a double top and tank, or break out to new highs and offer up an enormous long trade. Here's the chart with my TLT Trender v2 indicator:As noted in my chart, I think the Gbp/Usd will see 1.75 if it breaks through the overhead resistance level. I would suggest entering a long trade if it does break through that level with a profit target around 1.73-1.75, or keep the long trades open if your already long. I'll give an update once the pair breaks the level or if my system registers a sell signal. As always, time (and price action) will tell.

TLT

A Couple of Stocks Worth Watching

The first stock on my short term watch list is Genco Shipping (GNK). It's trading within a well developed channeling trend that might offer a good low risk/high reward entry point. Here's the chart:As you can see from the above chart, the entry point would be the lower trend line...it would be nice to see the stoch fall down to oversold levels right when the price hits the lower line. Shippers have been strong recently and a nice healthy pullback in a stong stock like this one would potentially be a great trade.

Another stock that's high on my list is Oshkosh Corp. This is more of a traditional break out trade. The key to this trade will be to wait for a pullback and I would also like to see the stoch come down from the current overbought level. Here's the chart with some annotations: These stocks may or may not offer up a trade, but I think they're worth watching. Just remember to wait for a good entry...good entry levels are indicated on the charts above. They may just continue to move up and I might be sitting on the sidelines because I missed the trade and that's okay because chasing stocks is not a good way to trade.

TLT

Current TLT v2 Trender Charts

Here are some chart clusters that show the current TLT v2 Trender readings for the daily, 4 hour, hourly and 30 minute time frames of the Eur/Usd, Gbp/Usd, Oil, Gold and the S&P 500. As a reminder, here are what the different colors mean:

Green=Buy
Yellow=exit longs and look to go short
Red=Sell short
Blue=Exit shorts and look to go long.

Eur/Usd
Gbp/UsdOilGold
S&P 500
Keep in mind that these signals are based on a trend following system and that means that at least half to even more than half of the signals will actually produce a losing trade. This system is profitable over significant periods of time, but there are the occasional draw downs. I like to look at the various readings for different instruments just to get an idea of what the current bias is for that particular instrument. For example, if the 30 minute chart for the Eur/Usd is green, i will look for short term trade setups to enter long trades.

It's worth noting that based on the above charts, Oil, the S&P, and the Gbp/Usd are all showing consistent strength in the 4 different time frames. The Eur/Usd is showing a little strength, but the signals are a little mixed which tells me that it's trading around a pivotal level.

This approach works for me and I think it's interesting enough to share with you. Hope it helps. Good luck with the trading.

TLT

TLT Trender v2 Update: Coding is Finished

My TLT v2 Trender indicator is finished and I'm very happy with it. As I described in a previous post, the indicator breaks down trends into 4 categories:

1. Blue: Accumulation--exit shorts and get ready to buy or go short again;
   
2. Green: Mark up--go long;
3. Yellow: Distribution--exit longs and get ready to short/or go long again;
4. Red: Mark down--go short.

Here's and example chart:Here's another chart, this one is more recent and it's the hourly chart of the pound:
For those who check in with my blog often, you'll probably remember that I was recently long the pound, however, I exited that position a couple of days ago and I bet you can guess where and when based off of the above chart. In fact, I exited the position within one day of my chearleaderish "Pound Keeps Rockin" post...guess my own excitement level over the trade could have been used as a good contrarian indicator as a topping signal. Luckily I stuck with the charts and not my emotions on that trade.

I'm trying to figure out how to incorporate the TLT Trender v2 readings into the blog. I've been toying around with the idea of posting daily, 4 hour and hourly charts of the eur/usd and the S&P, or something like that. Let me know if you have any ideas.

TLT

Cashin's Market View

"The market wants to go higher, it just needs some excuses."--Art Cashin on Squak on the Street this morning.

Out of AAPL

I booked my profits in Apple today...a nice little 17% gain. The trade lasted about 2 months and I bought in at the $119.00 level. Here's today's chart with my entry and exit notations.Two things concern me with the Apple trade:

1. Everyone's in it, and
2. Volume has been shrinking.

I'm not saying Apple is about to tank, it could keep going up forever, but I'm not comfortable with it anymore. I might buy back into it after a nice dip or some bad news.

TLT

Harvey's 3 Rules

I just finished reading Adventures of a Currency Trader: A fable about Trading, Courage, and Doing the Right Thing by Rob Booker (yes, I know my blog says that I'm currently reading Exceptional Trading by Ruth Roosevelt and I still am, but I tend to read several books at the same time). It was a pretty good read and I must admit that there are some really good lessons to be taken from the book.

One thing that stood out to me was Harvey's 3 rules. In the book, Harvey is the mentor that helps the main character, Harry Banes, become a successful trader. Harvey claims that the "most important laws of currency trading have nothing to do with entries and exits." I would agree with that statement. Here are Harvey's 3 important rules:

1. Thou Shalt Never Lose More Than 25 Perecent of Thine Account.
2. Thou Shalt Test Before Trading.
3. Thou Shalt Stand Accountable to Another Person for Thy Trades.

Pretty good rules and overall a good book. Check it out sometime...especially if you're interested in trading currencies.

TLT

The Pound Keeps Rockin'

One of the best currency trades i've had in a while (it's up over 500 pips) is a long Gpb/Usd trade and it's starting to get within reach of my profit target. Here's an houly chart:I've been in and out of the pound over the last several months and on this trade I just waited for a little pullback with some consolidation on the hourly chart and I hopped on board. The pound has the potential to blow way past my profit target but I'm gonna stick with my plan for this trade and book profits at the target and then if the pound is still showing strength, I'll wait for another pullback to re-enter.

Good luck out there.

TLT

Oil Update

Oil is pretty hot right now and I was lucky enough to enter into DXO at the beginning of May...oil has doubled since its bottom earlier this year and it rose 30% in May alone. I'm still in the trade and I have a profit target for DXO set at $8.75, still a ways away, but I'll be trailing a stop below support levels just in case it doesn't hit my target. Here's an updated chart:The world markets are rallying today and America seems to be on board as well so let's go make a little money.

TLT