Site Meter The Lawyer Trader: Stock
Showing posts with label Stock. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stock. Show all posts

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Roasted: GMCR's Revenue Recognition is Called into Question

Anyone notice GMCR today?  What a drop, and on huge volume. 

This stock has been very strong..it will be interesting to see how this one plays out.  I'll be watching this one closely as it's entered a value area..an area that makes the stock attractively priced.  First level for GMCR to take out is today's highs..this is where I'll be looking to go long for a gap fill trade.


TLT

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Crazy for Coach

Sunday my wife and I went to a Coach (COH) outlet store at the Allen outlet mall in Allen, Texas. She had received a 20% off coupon in the mail and wanted to get a couple of wallets. We thought we would just stroll in and grab what she wanted...boy were we in for a surprise! I'm sure part of the craziness was due to it being so close to Christmas, however, the Coach store was noticeably busier than any of the other stores at the outlet mall. First, we had to stand in a line outside the front door and wait to get in, like a high-end night club. Once the line got sufficiently long, it was at least 100 ft., and enough people cleared out of the store, presumably to avoid violating the fire code capacity limit, the door man let us and a lot of others in the store.

Once in the actual store, we noticed that it was still very crowded. Unfortunately for my wife, the wallets that she wanted must have been popular because they were sold out in the black and brown colors that she wanted. So instead of the wallets she picked out a purse, she had to get something since we went through all the trouble of just getting in the store. While she shopped, I noticed a line that wrapped around the store...the line to check out. I went ahead and got in line and then she met up with me once I finally got close to the check out counter.

I'm not posting about this experience to recommend buying Coach stock, I just think that the crazy demand for the purses is interesting and certainly worth keeping an eye on. Eventually, every woman who wants one will have their own Coach purse, whether it's an expensive one from the regular store a cheaper one from an outlet mall...what matters seems to be that its a purse that bears the distinct "C" pattern cloth. It will be interesting to see what happens to this company when the purses saturate the market to that level...could be an excellent short. For now though, the trend is certainly up and you'd be stepping in front of a freight train if you attempt to short this right now.

Here's the daily and weekly chart for COH, notice the strong uptrend:
Have a great day!

TLT

Monday, October 19, 2009

Stock to Watch: TEX

Terex Corp (TEX) is making new 52 week highs as it breaks out in a strong looking trend. As you can see from the chart below, TEX broke out of a range back in September, had a quick pull-back and is now off to the races. The weekly chart is showing a rounded bottom pattern and the weekly MACD has just crossed the zero line...both bullish signs. Also note that it is trading above it's 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages and the averages are in perfect order (short averages are above the long ones). Here's the daily and weekly charts:Bottom line, I like this stock. It looks very strong. However, take caution as it is over bought right now and is probably due for at least a small pullback. The stochastic is overbought on the daily chart and I will wait for the stochastic to pullback to neutral territory before buying in. One last thing, I put a potential profit target on the chart just above $40...where did it come from? It's the 50% fibonacci retracement level from the weekly chart...it also happens to be the nearest overhead resistance.

Overall, interesting stock and it should definitely be on your radar.

TLT

Friday, October 9, 2009

Today's Market Leaders

Keep an eye on these four individual stocks...they are certainly some of the market leaders that the rest of the market tends to follow. Bottom line, if the market is moving higher, these stocks need to be moving higher also and, more importantly, if these guys start moving lower, watch out! The four to watch: AAPL, AMZN, GOOG and GS. Here are the daily charts: What's there to say about AAPL besides...it's one of the strongest and most innovative companies out there and the market loves it...thus, we need to watch it.America's retailer...this is the new economy and Amazon is where it's at.Google rules the world right now...period.King of the club is "Goldman." As I heard on Bloomberg radio the other morning..."Where Goldman goes, so goes the market."

There are other important market leaders and some etfs, such as the emerging markets funds, that are helpful for gauging risk appetite but these four stocks are worth watching closely.These four alone will offer clues and insight about the market...look to them for upside confirmations and watch them for warnings of market vulnerabilities. The warning signs will be very significant because if and when this market makes a move lower, it will be swift.

Have a great weekend!

TLT

Wednesday, September 30, 2009

TSYS: Round 2

This is the second time I've posted on TSYS...the first post was for a potential channel trade but it did not work out very will. This stock has just chopped around a bunch since then but now it looks like it might be worth watching closely again. Here's the daily and weekly charts for tsys with a few comments:The bottom line is that both the weekly and daily charts are showing tightening price contractions which might lead to a tradeable breakout. I will probably start scaling in on the dips and I'll be looking for a breakout to new highs for a confirmation.

TLT

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

More AAPL

After my last look at Apple, which was not very long ago, I concluded that I wanted to buy around the 138-140 range. Well, that ship might have sailed, or at least it seems that way. One thing that you have to do when trading is be open to changing plans. I'm not saying that I will not buy in the previously mentioned range, but the current chart seems to indicate that a short term (and very tradeable) bottom my form above my target entry range. Here's the daily chart: I may have drawn the current price box a little too tight and I would not be that surprised to see the price fall back to the 145-150 level. The key is to let the market make the bottom. How will we know if the market makes a short term bottom? Watch the support levels and the BB Width. If AAPL bounces off a support level, lets say 155, and the BB Width hits a new low and levels off, then we know that a bottom is likely occuring.
I will look to buy while the BB Width is low, before it breaks out to new short term highs. This helps you get in the trade while the stock is still consolidating which allows a better risk to reward trade because you're getting into the stock prior to the next big advance in the stock. And what if the stock fails to advance to new highs? Dump it if it falls below the prior bottom.
It's impossible to say how much is left in this stock because it seems to be a very crowded trade, but don't underestimate a market leader like Apple in a short term bull market (which we are currently in).
Have a good day.
TLT

Monday, July 27, 2009

AAPL Revisited

I was speaking to my brother-in-law about Apple this weekend--a stock that we have both recently traded but are now out of--and he commented on how he'd like to get back into it at some point. This got me to thinking...how would I get back into it? Well, I've put together a little scenario/trading plan and if it works out as planned (which it often doesn't), I'll take the trade. Here's a chart with some annotations indicating my various buy, stop and profit target levels:Ideally, I'd like to buy in the $138-140 zone and take my profit at $160. This is just a range trade, the sort of trade that Apple has been offering up lately between breakouts to new highs. A good hard stop will be essential for this trade because I'll be buying a pullback and the problem with pullbacks is that sometimes they turn into reversals...which could easily happen given the run that Apple has had lately. My stop will be at $133.

So to recap:
  • Long @ $138-140
  • Stop @ $133
  • Profit Target @ $160
This trade could provide a 22 point profit for a 5 point risk, assuming you get in at $138. That would be slightly over a 4:1 risk to reward ratio, which is certainly acceptable. What if the trade goes in my favor but it doesn't quite hit the profit target? I'll move the stop to break even once it gets halfway to my target.

There's the plan, now we just have to wait and see what happens. Always "plan the trade and trade the plan."

TLT

Monday, July 6, 2009

Evaluating The Overall Market: And Determining Where To Put Money To Work

I like to keep tabs on the various sectors of the S&P. To do this, I have taken the advice of Dr. Brett Steenbarger and created a couple of watch lists that include the 10 different sectors of the S&P. I have a real time watchlist through my broker and I also use Stockcharts.com's candleglance feature. This allows me to bookmark a page that consists of 10 charts for the symbols that I enter (the 10 sectors of the S&P in this case). For those of you that are not familiar with it, here's what it looks like and here's the link to the candleglance page shown below:
This allows me to stay in tune with what sectors are doing well and which ones are not just by "glancing" at the charts on the page. As you can see from the above picture, energy is looking pretty rough right now (just broke the neckline of a head and shoulders as prices are hitting new recent lows). I like to glance at the stochastics also to see which sectors are overbought, oversold, and neutral.

Doing this helps me filter out various trades that I'm considering making. If a stock that I'm considering is in a sector that's not doing so well, or is heavily overbought, I will probably pass up that trade and look for somehting else.

Just some food for thought. Make sure and check out the candleglance feature over at stockcharts.com, it is a very valuable, yet free, tool.

TLT

Friday, July 3, 2009

A Few Stocks To Watch

I'm sitting on a little bit of cash right now, which is fortunate because the stock market pulled back a little on Thursday...potentially offering up some good trades. I'll be looking to put some of that cash to work and here are some stocks that I'll be watching and trading if I see a good setup. Also, I updated my watch list ticker at the top of the site, so there are some fresh stocks up there that are worth checking out.

Here are the charts:

CAST
CERN


NVEC
PEGA
QCORVMED
Have a great 4th of July weekend!

TLT

Wednesday, July 1, 2009

Out of OSK for a 39% Profit

Osk gapped up roughly 28% this morning on an upgrade and some news about a military contract. I bought this stock on June 17th after posting about it being a stock worth watching on June 10th.

Here's the chart:The gap up went right through my first profit target that was set at $18...my second target was $23 but I decided to bail out. Why? Well, I don't like holding onto a stock that just registered a massive one day gain like it did today. It might continue to go up, but, it might also sell off and close the gap...which I do not want to ride out.

Had this stock slowly krept up to my profit target, I would have only sold half my position, but I once heard that you should take quick "windfall" profits when they appear. Note that tajubg "windfall" profits is different than taking profits in general quickly...as quick profit taking in general is not a good strategy for trading. Unexpected "windfall" profits are a small gift that are occasionally given by the trading gods and they should be realized (in my opinion that is).

TLT

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Bought OSK Today

I decided to buy the dip this morning and purchase a little OSK. I got in at $12.90. Here's a chart with my entry and exit plans:We'll see how this one turns out. I like buying the breakouts after a pullback into resistance and this one is a near perfect scenario for that setup.

TLT

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

A Couple of Stocks Worth Watching

The first stock on my short term watch list is Genco Shipping (GNK). It's trading within a well developed channeling trend that might offer a good low risk/high reward entry point. Here's the chart:As you can see from the above chart, the entry point would be the lower trend line...it would be nice to see the stoch fall down to oversold levels right when the price hits the lower line. Shippers have been strong recently and a nice healthy pullback in a stong stock like this one would potentially be a great trade.

Another stock that's high on my list is Oshkosh Corp. This is more of a traditional break out trade. The key to this trade will be to wait for a pullback and I would also like to see the stoch come down from the current overbought level. Here's the chart with some annotations: These stocks may or may not offer up a trade, but I think they're worth watching. Just remember to wait for a good entry...good entry levels are indicated on the charts above. They may just continue to move up and I might be sitting on the sidelines because I missed the trade and that's okay because chasing stocks is not a good way to trade.

TLT

Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Review of a Live Trend Trade: ATW

April 13, 2009, I purchased ATW at just under $21.00 a share and today I want to review the trade and see if it's still worth holding onto. I initially put this stock on a watch list because it had been consolidating for a several months and it looked like it might break out of it's consolidation channel. Well, on April 13th it did and here is the chart:A little over a month has gone by now and the stock has shot up to $28-29, back down to the $22-23 neighborhood and now it's hovering around $25. I am going to hold onto this stock because the current chart pattern indicates that the uptrend is still intact and there is not a sell signal. Here's today's chart with some annotations:Based on the above observations, I think this is still a great stock to be in and this might even be a good point to jump in or add to a position. I personally will not be adding to my position because I have a sufficient exposure to equities right now, but I might wish I had later. We'll see.

TLT

Tuesday, March 3, 2009

Blockbuster...ehh, maybe we'll just hit the Redbox

Blockbuster (BBI) lost a whopping 77% today...although it did bounce back a little in after hours trading but I don't read too much into after hours trading. So what's going on with Blockbuster? I don't know but I do know one factor that is surely contributing to Blockbuster's troubles--Redbox.

Redbox? I know, you're thinking, "What is that?" "I've heard about it but don't know what it is." Or maybe you do know and you can disregard the prior statements. Either way, the Redbox has been a hit for its owner...Coinstar (CSTR). Yes, Coinstar owns the Coinstar machines that turn your change into cash for a 10% fee and they also own Redbox--the red machines that you can rent dvds from for just $1 a night. What's all the hype about? Well, take a look for yourself, here are 6 month daily charts for both of the stocks...you can see for yourself which stock is seeing inflows of capital and which is seeing the flight of capital.I know which stock I'd put my money in.

Good luck out there.

TLT

Friday, January 23, 2009

Interesting Activity in Forestar Group

There is some nice price action going on with Forestar, one of the stocks on my current watch list. It gapped up through resistance this morning and is currently holding a whopping 21% gain. This is certainly a stock worth keeping a close eye on because it will most likely offer a couple of good trading opportunities. Here's the daily chart with some annotations.
On a different note, gold is continuing its rally and the dollar continues to gain on the Euro...it will be interesting to see how low the Eur/Usd pair will go.

Good luck out there.

TLT