https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-10/hedge-fund-cio-2000-and-2008-too-asset-bubble-it-differs-fundamental-way
I'm seeing more and more commentary like this (for both equities and real estate) that sound good, but they ultimately are fancy commentary that can be translated into the simple phrase "but this time is different." We heard it starting in 2006 about the fed's manufactured "soft landing" and if you read in the history books, every sell off in the past has similar commentary.
I believe we're just in the part of the cycle where debt is high, people and companies are loose, and vulnerable people/companies will get exposed when there is a significant pull back. The vulnerable folks that get hurt will then lead to a major sell off. Whether it's the 2-3 year interest only term notes that need to be refinanced on speculative commercial property (apartment and hotel acquisitions where the buyer paid a premium) or just the average Joe that is walking a fine line between his income and his increasing credit card debt, it will hurt. A pension that cannot meet its outgoing cash obligations will certainly start a panic, and there's some pretty smart people out there saying that's a major concern.
Ultimately, it doesn't matter what the cause is, it will play out the way they always play out.
TLT
I'm seeing more and more commentary like this (for both equities and real estate) that sound good, but they ultimately are fancy commentary that can be translated into the simple phrase "but this time is different." We heard it starting in 2006 about the fed's manufactured "soft landing" and if you read in the history books, every sell off in the past has similar commentary.
I believe we're just in the part of the cycle where debt is high, people and companies are loose, and vulnerable people/companies will get exposed when there is a significant pull back. The vulnerable folks that get hurt will then lead to a major sell off. Whether it's the 2-3 year interest only term notes that need to be refinanced on speculative commercial property (apartment and hotel acquisitions where the buyer paid a premium) or just the average Joe that is walking a fine line between his income and his increasing credit card debt, it will hurt. A pension that cannot meet its outgoing cash obligations will certainly start a panic, and there's some pretty smart people out there saying that's a major concern.
Ultimately, it doesn't matter what the cause is, it will play out the way they always play out.
TLT
