Site Meter The Lawyer Trader: July 2012

Sunday, July 22, 2012

The Real Cost of Fees: Wall Street's Dirty Little Secret

I've been doing some research on portfolio construction using ETFs and decided to see exactly what impact fees have on a portfolio.  The portfolios that I've been testing are very low fee--most of them have a total annual expense ratio of .25%.  To illustrate the impact of fees, I ran annual compounding rates of 10% and included different levels of fees over a 50 year horizon.

The results are staggering.  Wall Street has a dirty little secret and it's that Wall Street is designed to make firms money first and customer's money second.  Kind of like the classic book by Fred Schweb, Where Are The Customer's Yachts.  Given that the book was originally published in 1940, this secret isn't anything new, it's just that the industry wraps up the fees/commissions in new products and gives it a new marketing spin.  Whether it's called a management fee, an administration fee, a commission, a surrender fee, a front-end load, a deferred load, a 12b-1 fee, or an "other" (yes, I've seen a statement that said "other" next to the fee), it's all a way of making the firm money and slowly and quietly charging the client.  It happens more than most people think and most individuals are in products that have fees baked into the product that have other fees on top of them--for instance, the mutual fund fees that are inside a variable annuity that has its own fee.  Yes, most people reading the blog are not likely to have variable annuities in their portfolios, but tons of individuals have them and they usually don't even understand that it's an annuity platform and that they are getting fee'd to death.  Enough of my rant..let's look at the numbers.

 Here's a table that shows a portfolio starting with $10,000 that is compounded annually at 10% with the annual fees taken out.




Here's a graph of the results.

Here's a graph of the first 20 years zoomed in.  This is helpful for those that say it's too late, that they only have another 10-15 years before retirement...look, it still costs thousands and thousands of dollars.

So what is the solution?  Obviously, replace your mutual funds with low cost ETFs.  If your comfortable with it, replace your financial advisor with low cost ETFs.  There's no sense in having an advisor tack on another 1-2% on top of the fees just to put you in the product and re-balance it for you if you're able to do it yourself.  Some people like the help and want an advisor and I understand that, but many do not need it.

If you're interested in learning more about ETF portfolios, there are plenty of great online resources and books to learn from.  Look at John Bogle's book, The Little Book of Common-Sense Investing, or Mebane Faber's The Ivy Portfolio--both are great places to get started.

I hope everyone has had a great weekend.

TLT 

Saturday, July 14, 2012

Summer Reading: Deemer on Technical Analysis and a TOS Code for His Break Away Momentum Indicator



This summer, I've been reading Walter Deemer's Deemer On Technical Analysis and it has been one of the best technical analysis books that I've read in a really long time.  Mr. Deemer gives his take on using TA for longer term investors and he shy's away from the ultra short term time frames that many modern trading books focus on.  He had a long career as a technical analyst and his book is chock full incredibly interesting and witty observations based on his own experiences from his career.


Deemer  not only breaks down what he feels is useful about TA, he also does a great job of explaining his beliefs on why the TA that he uses works.  You're not going to see pictures of massive charts with multiple indicators and squiggly lines in this book..he keeps his charts to the bare minimum of what he considers useful tools.  This book will likely be the book that I recommend to people when they ask me for a good book that can help them get started with investing/trading or with TA in genearl.  If you haven't read it yet, pick it up or order it for the kindle/ipad.  It's well worth the read.

As a bonus, I coded his Breakaway Momentum indicator for think or swim.  This indicator uses the NYSE advances and declines that are added together for the trailing 10 days and then a ratio is created of advances to declines.  To be breakaway momentum, the reading has to be above a 1.97.  These readings only happen once every 31 and a half years on average.  That being said, we had three in 2009..a bit of an anomaly and a testament to how oversold the market was after the 2008 meltdown.  For more info and historical recordings of breakaway momentum check out Mr. Deemer's website here.

Here's a chart, note TOS has some data issues with advance decline numbers starting in 2009 and going backwards, however, this indicator works well with recent data and you can still see the 3 breakaway readings in 2009..there are just some holes in the data that don't look pretty.



And here is the code for you thinkorswim fans:

####Delete this line when pasting in TOS####


declare lower;

input adv = "$ADVN";
input dec = "$DECN";
input length = 10;

def up = close(adv);
def down = close(dec);

def sumup = sum(up, length);
def sumdn = sum(down, length);

plot ratio = sumup/sumdn;

plot breakaway = 1.97;

####Delete this line when pasting in TOS####


Have a great weekend!

TLT