Eur/Usd: Reversal or False Breakout

The stock markets are continuing there 4-day rally and the Eur/Usd is following suit. There's been some weakness in the dollar after the substantial gains in the indexes and the Eur/Usd is beginning to look like a potential reversal in trend in coming. Here's an hourly chart that shows the current uptrend:
So what's the game plan now? Well, you can either sit on the side line and wait for the follow through or take a little nibble and buy on a small dip with the intentions of adding to the position if the pair continues up. This will be one heck of a shorting opportunity (go long the dollar) if this move ends up being a false breakout, but I'm not going to fade the break in anticipation...I just don't feel like I have a great grasp on the markets at the moment and I need to see a little price action to get my bearings. We'll see how it turns out.

Good luck out there.

TLT

Opportunity to Sell More of the Eur/Usd

The overnight rally in the Eur/Usd that extended through this morning provided a great opportunity to add to or open a short position in the pair. I added around the 1.2720 level. The pair is still in a good downtrend and the story right now is that the dollar is a "safe haven" investment. I don't care whether it really is or not, I'm just ridin' the trend. Here's a 4-hour chart of the Eur/Usd pair.

NIce Price Action in Gold

For the past year, gold has been trending downward in a textbook linear regression trend channel. Take a look:

Notice how the price keeps hitting the top of the channel and then quickly falls back down. It might be a good time to short gold given that it recently bounced off the top channel again. I'm tempted to short here and set an exit target around $725...there seems to be a congestion area at that level.

Good luck out there.

TLT

Dollar Analysis

There has been a lot of talk about the dollar's upcoming collapse due to the bail out. I wanted to get to the bottom of what's really going on in the short-term with the old green back because commentators tend to exaggerate or just be flat wrong when they talk about the dollar.

As you can see in the EUR/USD daily chart below, the dollar has broken through its recent intermediate trend channel. This tells me that I don't want to be long the dollar but, I'm not ready to go against it either. With all the chaos of late, its very hard to tell if these types of pullbacks are full blown trend reversals or just emotional reactions. My gut says that it's the latter.
One thing that I'll keep my eye on is the 50 and 200 day moving averages. So far, the dollar has fallen back to its 50 day moving average and stalled. One indicator I like to use for trading in forex is the 10 day ma along with the 50 day ma. Once the 10 crosses the 50, it will confirm an intermediate trend reversal and I'll look for a nice pull back to sell the dollar into.

Interestingly, there are some out there that see this recent pullback as a bullish opportunity for the dollar.