Dollar Analysis

There has been a lot of talk about the dollar's upcoming collapse due to the bail out. I wanted to get to the bottom of what's really going on in the short-term with the old green back because commentators tend to exaggerate or just be flat wrong when they talk about the dollar.

As you can see in the EUR/USD daily chart below, the dollar has broken through its recent intermediate trend channel. This tells me that I don't want to be long the dollar but, I'm not ready to go against it either. With all the chaos of late, its very hard to tell if these types of pullbacks are full blown trend reversals or just emotional reactions. My gut says that it's the latter.
One thing that I'll keep my eye on is the 50 and 200 day moving averages. So far, the dollar has fallen back to its 50 day moving average and stalled. One indicator I like to use for trading in forex is the 10 day ma along with the 50 day ma. Once the 10 crosses the 50, it will confirm an intermediate trend reversal and I'll look for a nice pull back to sell the dollar into.

Interestingly, there are some out there that see this recent pullback as a bullish opportunity for the dollar.