Close!..but not quite there yet

It's no secret that Treasuries have been hot lately..the only question is:  when will it end?  TLT nearly registered a sell signal today..coming very close to flipping the V-Stop on the daily chart.  The next few days should be interesting because TLT is also oversold on the Stochastic.  If you're in the camp that believes that Treasuries will continue to rally, this is the time to be loading up.  It is a great risk-to-reward entry point for the longs.  That being said, I'm on the other side, as I've been short via TBT for two weeks now.  I've just got beginning small position on and I will add to the position a couple of times after the V-Stop flips..if it flips.

The great aspect of this trade is the potential for treasuries to crash hard if/when they begin to fall.  Be extra careful if you happen to own any bond mutual funds or bond etfs.  I told my grandfather to consider unloading some of his bond funds into this strength (just some, not all) and his brilliat financial adviser told him that the bond funds won't drop until interest rates begin to rise.  Excellent advice!  Can you pick up on my sarcasm?  I pointed out that it's not when interest rates begin to rise that will be the problem, it's when the market begins to believe that interest rates could rise...and whenever that happens, it will happen quickly.  The important reason to unload bond funds into momentum is because there's the rush to exit scenario that could be very likely and in this day in age (post flash crash and 2008 days) we all know that you don't want to sell when you feel you have to because it will already be too late. 

Hope everyone's having  a great week so far.

TLT

Trade Update: TNA

Sold TNA this morning for a nice little 10% gain. Will the stock continue to go up? Maybe, but my plan was to sell at the $24 level and I stuck with the plan. All-in-all, this was a well planned trade that worked out according to plan...love it when that happens. Here's the chart:The markets are a little mixed today...stocks are down right now but not by much. I'm holding a few currency trades (short Eur/Usd, Usd/Cad and long Aud/Jpy, Cad/Jpy) and a couple of stocks (long AAPL and ATW) and I think that will do it for this week. I might make a continuation trade (read here for explanation of continuation trade) if the Eur/Usd is still showing considerable weakness going into the close this afternoon.

Have a great weekend!

TLT

Open Positions

Currently, I'm:

• long the Usd/Jpy--the pair has reversed trend and is very bullish
• short the Eur/Usd--no surprise here, I've been short the Euro for a while
  
• short the Eur/Gbp--the pound has been looking bullish after being very oversold

We'll see how these turn out. Obviously, I'm still pretty bullish on the dollar and it's starting to be a pretty popular opinion to have. You can tell when an opinion is pretty popular when you hear Dylan Ratigan state on live tv that the dollar is in demand because our (America's) financial system is "less crappy" than everyone else's.

Good luck out there.

TLT