Close!..but not quite there yet

It's no secret that Treasuries have been hot lately..the only question is:  when will it end?  TLT nearly registered a sell signal today..coming very close to flipping the V-Stop on the daily chart.  The next few days should be interesting because TLT is also oversold on the Stochastic.  If you're in the camp that believes that Treasuries will continue to rally, this is the time to be loading up.  It is a great risk-to-reward entry point for the longs.  That being said, I'm on the other side, as I've been short via TBT for two weeks now.  I've just got beginning small position on and I will add to the position a couple of times after the V-Stop flips..if it flips.

The great aspect of this trade is the potential for treasuries to crash hard if/when they begin to fall.  Be extra careful if you happen to own any bond mutual funds or bond etfs.  I told my grandfather to consider unloading some of his bond funds into this strength (just some, not all) and his brilliat financial adviser told him that the bond funds won't drop until interest rates begin to rise.  Excellent advice!  Can you pick up on my sarcasm?  I pointed out that it's not when interest rates begin to rise that will be the problem, it's when the market begins to believe that interest rates could rise...and whenever that happens, it will happen quickly.  The important reason to unload bond funds into momentum is because there's the rush to exit scenario that could be very likely and in this day in age (post flash crash and 2008 days) we all know that you don't want to sell when you feel you have to because it will already be too late. 

Hope everyone's having  a great week so far.

TLT