A couple of weeks ago, I pointed out that gold was beginning to look interesting in this
post. I think it's safe to say that gold got interesting, as it has continued to go up and make all time highs. So far, so good...this is what it's all about...you notice something interesting, buy it and it goes up. Now for what I consider the tricky part of a good trade...when to sell.
I must admit, my natural instincts of seeing a profitable trade in an instrument that's making all time highs started telling me to book profits. I even considered it on Friday. Then something interesting happend. I was watching CNBC and I kept hearing the talking heads speak about traders booking profits in gold or selling gold at these new levels. That's when my thinking changed back to how it should be. I realized that a lot of traders were feeling like me...looking at these high prices...seeing how far above the moving averages it's trading...thinking about the paper profits. This is when it pays to fade your feelings. Sure, I might see some paper profits go up in smoke, but I'm trading for big profits, not smaller profits and that's just part of the game. When "everyone" is selling out of an instrument that's making all time highs, it usually pays to hold on just a little bit longer because what nobody thought would or could happen sometimes does happen.
Will gold continue to go up? I don't know, but I'm willing to let a position ride on the premise that it could and that there has not been any good signal for me to sell gold. Sounds simple enough, yet many (most) traders don't step away from a trade and think about these things. You've got to ask yourself, "Why do I want to sell right now?" Then write that answer in your trading journal. If you do that over and over, and you're like me, you'll start to see a pattern of selling winners too early. That goes against Livermore's advice of , "Cut losses and let profits run."
Ok, back to gold..here's an updated weekly chart that I'm looking at:
The most important aspect of this chart, aside from the bullish trend in price, is the rising BB Width that's still at relatively low levels. I said in my earlier post on gold that I was looking for the BB Width to reach between 20 and 25...it's at 15 right now. It may not rise to the 20-25 range, but it's likely that it will. This would mean that volatility is still expanding (Bollinger Bands are increasing in width) which I know is a sign of a trend continuing to gain strength. So for now, my analysis says HOLD.
Hope everyone's having a great weekend.
TLT
As for the stock market, I'm in cash right now and waiting for a fresh short signal or a buy signal. I can tell you that the path of least resistance is still down, so a new short signal will most likely be next..but you have to stay open to different scenarios playing out. 
I've made a few notes on the chart relating some of the more important things that I'm taking from it. The 2 most important things that I see, things that give me conviction to hold positions, are the fresh lows and the leveling out of the BB Width. I've found that the BB Width indicator is one of the best tools for determining continuation of a trend. When volatility kicks up, the short term BB Width rises above the 5 period average and more times than not we see follow through in the direction of the trend. When the BB Width is declining and below the 5 period average, we generally get consolidation with the potential for a short term reversal, which is what we've had lately.
The most important aspect of this chart, aside from the bullish trend in price, is the rising BB Width that's still at relatively low levels. I said in my earlier post on gold that I was looking for the BB Width to reach between 20 and 25...it's at 15 right now. It may not rise to the 20-25 range, but it's likely that it will. This would mean that volatility is still expanding (Bollinger Bands are increasing in width) which I know is a sign of a trend continuing to gain strength. So for now, my analysis says HOLD.
This week GLD broke out of a multi-week trading range. On top of the break out, I like the bullish MACD cross over and that the BB Width (Bollinger Band Width--a measure of the distance between the high and low bollinger bands) is relatively low...this indicates that there is room for gold to move up.
The sell signal is highlighted with the red circle. Notice that both trend lines are red...that's the sell signal. Also, in the top left of the chart, the signals for the different time frames around the 5 minute period all say down or indicate that they're about to say down. The final factor that confirms the sell is the BB width indicator at the bottom of the chart. The BB width line is below the green line and it's turning up, which indicates the currency pair was basing and is beginning to break out. 
