$SBUX, Trend Following and New Nifty Add Arrows

One of the few winners today was Starbucks.  The market gave a very favorable reaction to the news of Starbucks and Green Mountain Coffee working together for a Starbucks single serve coffee.  Notice that this stock is in a Strong Up Trend, as indicated by the rising price and the "Strong Up Trend" label in the top left hand corner of the chart below.  This chart shows the latest version of my trend following indicator, the TLT Trender.  I've been referring to this one as Trend Fuzz, as it uses a little fuzzy logic to help determine trends and add levels.  Here's the chart:

Note the Nifty Add Arrows.  This is a very new addition to the system that I finished coding today.  They seem to have promise, although I haven't fully tested them yet.  For those of you that read Moaxian's blog, recently you've heard him mention the importance of adding to winners.  There's a lot of truth to this, as the point of trend following is to suck out as much profit from good trends.  I'll post more about this once I spend some more time on it. 

For now, we need to add SBUX to our watchlists, as it is showing amazing relative strength. 


TLT

A Glimpse at the TLT Trender v3

Haven't posted in a while, I've just been really busy with work and life in general.  All though I haven't posted much, I have still been very active in the markets.  Also, I've been working on the next generation of my trend following system--The TLT Trender, which is now on its third version.  This version is taking a little while, mainly because I've been coding it myself and I've been coding it for Think or Swim, as opposed to MetaTrader 4 on the last version.  Here's a screen shot of what it looks like right now: 

As you can see from the chart above, the bars on the chart change color based on the current signal.  The bars are changing color based on the reading of the Thermo Adaptive indicator down in the second indicator window.  The Thermo Adaptive indicator is the heart of the system and the ATR Average Compare indicator in the third window acts as a confirmation of trend (2 is a strong uptrend, 1 is weak uptrend, 0 is neutral, -1 is weak down trend and -2 is a strong downtrend). 

The Thermo indicator is based on the previous thermometer that I've posted on before.  Although it is similar, this version is much different and far more sophisticated.  This indicator constantly tracks a stock's ability to make higher highs and higher lows and trade around significant levels (like 52 week highs or 20 day highs) and then the indicator tracks current prices verses different averages of these thermo readings.  The different averages are actually adaptive averages (hence Thermo Adaptive) and they will tighten up when trending and loosen up when price action is choppy and inefficient.

I'll post more about these new versions of my indicators soon and maybe post some of the code for other Think or Swimmers out there.  One neat way that I've recently (like a week ago) began implementing this indicator is by taking current readings of every stock in the S&P 500 on three different time frames on a daily basis.  This is allowing me to track the trends in different sectors on different time frames to get a feel for the orderflow in the market.  It's still early and there's much more work to be done.  I'll post more soon.

TLT

TLT Trender Signals

Here's this week's signals.

TLT Trender Signals

Here are this week's signals:
As you can see, there's Dollar weakness across the board...except against the yen, which is really weak. Also, gold is tanking and oil is making a bullish break out pattern. Just my 2 cents...the Eur/Jpy is a good buy right now. Also, I know that one follower has a great Usd/Chf short on right now...good luck with the trade B.V.

TLT Trender Signals

Here are this week's readings.

TLT Trender Signals

TLT Trender Signals

Here are this weeks Trender readings.Notice that Nzd/Usd and the Gbp/Usd pairs are still trending down and the Usd/Cad pair is still in an all out uptrend.

TLT Trender Signals

Here are the readings for this week.

TLT Trender Signals

Here are the Trender signals for this week. The choppy sideways trading that we've been seeing is registering some funky readings for my trend following system.

TLT Trender Signals

Here are the trend readings for this week. Note that the Gbp/Usd trend has turned from up>down to down.

TLT Trender Signals

This week's Trender readings. Note that as of now, the daily downtrend remains intact for the Eur/Usd, Gbp/Usd, Usd/Jpy and Nzd/Usd, but some of these pairs are acting like a trend change is coming soon. Recent price action in the pound has been very bullish and I would not be surprised to see a buy signal soon. It's very important to remain open minded, especially when the instrument(s) you're trading seem to be entering pivotal price levels.

TLT Trender Signals

Here's the readings for this week. I've changed up the format a little...the colors on the old pictures looked kind of awkward when uploaded on the blog. The new format should be a little easier on the eyes.

TLT Trender Signals

TLT Trender Signals

Here's this week's Trender readings...note that gold has turned to a "down" reading on the daily time frame.

TLT Trender Signals

Here are this weeks Trender signals. A couple of notable changes are the sell signals in the Eur/Usd and Usd/Jpy pairs for the daily time frame. Also, the daily oil reading just gave a buy signal and the daily gold signal switched from "up" to "up>down"...could be the start of a down trend in gold.

TLT Trender Signals

Here are the Trender signals for this week. A couple notable changes are the daily readings for the Usd/Jpy and Oil...both of which indicate that there may be a new trend developing.

TLT Trender Signals

Here's the weekly TLT Trender signals update.

TLT Trender Signals

Here's this weeks readings from the TLT Trender.

Dollar Breakdown

It finally happen, the Eur/Usd pushed through the upper linear regression trend channel and it did it with ease. Also, the TLT Trender system just gave a buy signal for the Eur/Usd on the daily chart. Take a look:
Now we'll have to see whether this is a valid trend reversal or just a false break out. I always go with the trading system and take whatever trade it says to make...which is a buy right now...but its hard to do. It's hard to be confident in the currency market because there are some major forces (central banks) at work that can create and end major moves like this one in a matter of days and even hours.

One thing that I like to do in this situation is to check out the weekly chart to get a feel for the long term trend. As you can see below, the primary trend is still down and the chart is still giving a sell signal (both moving trend lines are red). There is also a long trend line (yellow line) that is still not broken...we'll have to watch the pair as it approaches that potential resistance. For now, I'll be looking to go long the pair on much shorter time frames until a sell signal is established on the daily chart.

As for stocks, it looks like we're set for an ugly open. I'm sure that you've heard no less than 20 times by now that the auto bailout is dead and there is word that GM has hired bankruptcy counsel. Should make for a fun Friday in the stock market.

Good luck out there.

TLT

TLT Trender Currency Signals

Here's a chart of the current currency trends for some of the currency pairs I follow. The trend direction is determined by my own trend following system...thought you might find it interesting.This chart is part of a spreadsheet that I update on a weekly basis. Going through the motions of keeping a checklist of the different trends of the various currency pairs helps me stay tuned in to the flow of the currency market. I highly recommend that all traders keep some sort of daily, weekly, or even monthly checklist that is adapted to their trading strategy and update it on regular basis. Since my trading strategy is based on trend following, it makes sense to come up with ways to determine the trend and monitor the trends on several time frames.

On a different note, I spent some time today updating my trading plan. It's one of those activities that is almost never fun to do but it is very necessary if you want to be and, more importantly, stay profitable. I will probably share some bits and pieces of the trading plan in the next day or two so be on the lookout.

If you don't have your own checklist system, trading plan or both, Mastering the Trade by John Carter is an excellent resource and it's one of the better books that can help you get started in both of those areas. In fact, it is a very well written and informative book that I would recommend to anyone that has at least a little knowledge about trading and is looking to learn more.

Good luck out there.

TLT