We've had some interesting price action over the last week. I've taken this dip as an opportunity to add some longs for both me and some clients. This market will likely continue higher and it will be confusing to many retailers when they see this market making new highs despite all the negative news stories. Here's a quick break down of recent price action in the S&P via SPY:
I've pointed out 3 interesting scenarios that have taken place within the last 7 trading days. First there was a strong swing low last Friday, which looked like an excellent bullish reversal. That was followed by a big gap down on Monday that had a false break to new short term lows (15-20 day lows). The interesting thing about Monday is that a bunch of stops were likely taken out and then the market closed pretty close to the highs for the day. I'd imagine quite a few retailers lost some money on that move. Tuesday, the bulls were definitely back in control and going long above Monday's highs was a great short term long setup. Then today...we gapped way up to 6 day highs and didn't lose too much ground.
From my point of view, this type of price action is showing that bulls are still in control. Every time the market looks like its setting up a shorting opportunity, the move gets faded as buyers hit the market. The long and intermediate trends are both up and that's how I will trade until that changes. Going short in this market is for suckers that like to pick tops (a skill that very few can successfully do) or major suckers that like to pick up nickels in front of a steam roller (sure you might make a few cents here and there but you're taking an enormous risk). As always, this is just one person's opinion and I am wrong just like many others...I've just learned to cut my losses over the years and to hold on to winners when the current trade is acting "right."
Outside of the market, it has been hectic lately. Work is incredibly busy and my wife and I recently closed on a new home and moved about two weeks ago. Unpacking always takes about 10 times longer than I think it will..eh, you guys know about that. I guess I'm saying these things to explain why posting has been limited lately. I have managed to read a couple of interesting books lately and I plan on posting a couple of reviews on them. Maybe I'll have time this weekend.
Hopefully everyone is off to a profitable start this week! Keep your head up and stay alert..this is a crazy market.
TLT
I've pointed out 3 interesting scenarios that have taken place within the last 7 trading days. First there was a strong swing low last Friday, which looked like an excellent bullish reversal. That was followed by a big gap down on Monday that had a false break to new short term lows (15-20 day lows). The interesting thing about Monday is that a bunch of stops were likely taken out and then the market closed pretty close to the highs for the day. I'd imagine quite a few retailers lost some money on that move. Tuesday, the bulls were definitely back in control and going long above Monday's highs was a great short term long setup. Then today...we gapped way up to 6 day highs and didn't lose too much ground.
From my point of view, this type of price action is showing that bulls are still in control. Every time the market looks like its setting up a shorting opportunity, the move gets faded as buyers hit the market. The long and intermediate trends are both up and that's how I will trade until that changes. Going short in this market is for suckers that like to pick tops (a skill that very few can successfully do) or major suckers that like to pick up nickels in front of a steam roller (sure you might make a few cents here and there but you're taking an enormous risk). As always, this is just one person's opinion and I am wrong just like many others...I've just learned to cut my losses over the years and to hold on to winners when the current trade is acting "right."
Outside of the market, it has been hectic lately. Work is incredibly busy and my wife and I recently closed on a new home and moved about two weeks ago. Unpacking always takes about 10 times longer than I think it will..eh, you guys know about that. I guess I'm saying these things to explain why posting has been limited lately. I have managed to read a couple of interesting books lately and I plan on posting a couple of reviews on them. Maybe I'll have time this weekend.
Hopefully everyone is off to a profitable start this week! Keep your head up and stay alert..this is a crazy market.
TLT
No comments:
Post a Comment