Site Meter The Lawyer Trader: November 2009

Saturday, November 28, 2009

Popular Post Replay: 12-6-2008

This was one of the more popular posts of 2008, as measured by incoming traffic that was specifically linked to the post. Being that it's a holiday weekend and I'm not feeling like working on a fresh new post, I thought it would be fun to do a Popular Post Replay. I think part of the reason for the popularity of this post is that it involves the great Market Wizard Paul Tudor Jones...a guy that's always worth listening to.

Here it is: Four Bibles of the Trading Business According to Paul Tudor Jones


“When I meet someone who is interested in learning the trading business, I always refer them to what I consider to be the four Bibles of the business: Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefevre, the fictionalized biography of the fabled Jesse Livermore; Technical Analysis of Stock Trends by Mcgee and Edwards, which was written in the first half of the twentieth century and whose tenets still hold today; The Elliott Wave Theorist by Robert Prechter and A.J. Frost, a classic, and finally Market Wizards by Jack Schwager, which is a compilation of interviews with great traders.”
--Paul Tudor Jones
from the forward of The Logical Trader

Sunday, November 22, 2009

Weekly Wisdom Quote

"The person who stops studying merely because he has finished school is forever hopelessly doomed to mediocrity, no matter what may be his calling. The way of success is the way of continuous pursuit of knowledge."
--Napoleon Hill
Think and Grow Rich

Saturday, November 21, 2009

The Lawyer [Prop.] Trader?

Well, the end of the year is coming soon and I've been doing a lot of planning for 2010 as we get closer to the new year. One thing on the agenda is to get more serious about my trading and take it up to the next level. I've looked into and considered several different options to obtain my goal and now I've settled on trading with a proprietary (prop.) trading firm. While prop. trading, I will still run my law practice on the side for a little while, I at least have to wrap up several cases, but then I will be looking to shut down the practice for good if the trading continues to go well.

I've had to do quite a bit of research to find out what prop. trading is all about. The good news is that there are several options for traders today who are interested in making the transition from being an amateur part-time to a full-time professional trader, as many firms now offer remote trading opportunities so you can trade from home. The bad news is that there are some not very reputable prop. firms out there and these guys tend to give prop. firms in general a bad wrap. I figured that I would provide a post and break down some of my findings and observations about prop. firms for those interested.

First, prop. firms can be separated into firms that require a capital contribution (risk deposit) and those that don't. The ones that do not require a risk deposit generally require you to take and pay for a training class ($3,000-5,000 is the typical price) or you must provide them with a professional and profitable trading record. From what I hear, some of them will still demand that you take the class unless you have a pretty good record. One benefit of trading with a firm that does not require a risk deposit (even though you pay for the training) is that this circumvents the SEC rule that requires a series 55 and 63 license in order to trade professionally.

Okay, so they charge you for a class...then what? Well they usually have a training period that lasts anywhere from several weeks to 6 months and then there is generally an amount that you have to make within the training period or at some point at the end and if you make this amount (which is often very low) then you can start trading firm capital. At this point, you begin trading a set amount ($50,000-$100,000) with a set risk limit (a daily loss limit) and the firm charges you commissions, software/seat fees, and they take a cut of your profits. Some firms allow you to keep up to 90% of profits and others can be as low as 50%, it just depends on the firm and the arrangement that you have with them. Sometimes it's possible and more profitable to give over a greater share of your profits in order to get lower commissions...this would be beneficial for scalpers.

The ones that require a training course and not a capital contribution are what I'll call Group 1 prop. firms. These are better suited for those that are either new to trading, don't have a professional track record, or feel that the training would be beneficial. The plus side to these firms is that they provide you training, mentorship, and they have an interest in seeing you make money because they want to earn money from you. The cons are that you usually have to take a class, they can be very restrictive on your risk limits and trading style, and it can take a while before you're up to the level where you can earn a living from trading the firm's capital. There are also a few firms that are less reputable and some in particular that are associated with some big names (that will not be mentioned here) that charge a big fee for the training and they have a reputation for not developing many profitable traders. Doing due diligence on prop. firms is essential as donig business in this area of the trading world is defineitly what we call "caveat emptor" or "buyer beware."

Examples of some of the better (note that better is only my opinion from my research...do your own DD) Group 1 firms are SMB Capital, Keystone Trading Group and Pro Trading Course. As I said above, Group 1 is more beneficial to those that are not already or have never been professional traders, but they would probably be very frustating to those who are already professional and can earn a consistent living due to the restrictive nature of the firms.

As for the firms that require the risk deposit, I'll call these Group 2 and these can range from firms that just require a deposit and let you start trading to ones that provide more services and training. Examples of these types of firms are Think or Swim or Cy Group. The benefit of these firms is that they provide you with the tools, leverage and direct market access that is often (but not always) required in order to trade for a living. Group 2 is ideal for those with professoinal experience trading and they generally offer discount to trading groups as well. As you can imagine, they are not as well suited to most non-professionals because a lot of them do not offer the intense training and mentorship that Group 1 provides, but some do offer more than others, you just have to do some due diligence.

The downside to some of these groups, but not all and not the ones listed above, is that some require you to trade a certain amount of volume because they make their money by charging you commissions. Now the commission part itself is not bad, because they usually offer lower commissions than are available at the retail level, its the pressure or requirement to trade a certain amount of volume that is not good. These are "churn and burn" outfits and they don't have much interest in seeing traders stay profitable, they just want their money from you and then they'll move on to others.

So there you have it...what else could you need to know...anything? Yes! This post has barely brushed the surface and anyone interested in pursuing the prop. trading path has to do much more research and DD. What kind of research and DD should one do? Start by contacting the firm, looking at the firm's websites and blogs, ask the firm for references and contact these people that have traded with the firm, read forums to see what's being said about them (although take what is said in forums with a grain of salt), and even visit the firm in person if possible.

Here are a few links to some helpful resources:
As for me, I've decided to go with the Group 1 option and get the intese training and mentorship. I feel that this will be beneficial because I've never traded for a living, just on the side, and I've never felt pressured to consistently draw a living out of the market as I have a law practice that provides that. The live mentorship alone will probably be worth the money. I'll probably begin in January or February of 2010, which is just a couple of months away now. I haven't quite narrowed it down to a specific firm yet, but I think I have an idea of which one I'll go with...I post on that at a later time.

I hope this post is helpful to anyone considering proprietary trading. Please feel free to comment or email me if you have anything to add. I'll post some updates once I have more to say.

Have a great weekend!

TLT

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

New 52 Week High 2 Days in a Row: FCX

I spent almost the entire day working on a Motion for Summary Judgment for a civil lawsuit that contains nine separate causes of action and the Petition (or complaint) is so poorly written that it appears to be drafted by a moneky. If you're not familiar with a Motion for Summary Judgment (MSJs) then consider yourself lucky because they are not fun...unless you're one of those sick twisted individuals that likes that kind of stuff...I knew a few of them in law school. Needless to say I didn't trade any today, which is okay, but I did manage a position that I already had on. I've been long FCX since November 10th and this stock has been on fire the past few days. Here's an intra-day chart with some comments on today's price action: FCX sold of with the market a little this morning but then it began showing strong relative strength as it was able to get into the green before the market did. At this point, I'm just trailing stops with this trade as it's in the money and making new highs. I don't want to add to it though as this market is a little shaky to be adding on too big a posistion...something I did just before the market made its dip back in October.

It will be interesting to see how the rest of the week plays out. The first two days of trading this week look a lot like the first two days last week--a gap and rally followed by choppy consolidation. This market tends to head higher when there's not any potential bad news (i.e. anything that could cause the dollar to rise), which leads to short covering, which leads to higher prices and then the cycle repeats itself. The only problem is that it's a game of musical chairs right now because the dollar will eventually rise, (due to rising rates, risk aversion, profit taking on the carry-trade, central bank intervention the fed even hinting about the possibility of raising rates in the future, you get the idea) and being long this market is basically a game of musical chairs for now, which is why so many pros and pundits hate this rally. Gotta love it. Although it can be confusing and frustrating at times, the market is never borring.

Hope everyone is having a good week!

TLT

Sunday, November 15, 2009

Weekly Wisdom Quote

"...our visual and decision environments are filtered to us courtesy of our eyes, our ears, our senses of smell and touch, and the master of it all, our brain. By the time we comprehend and digest information, it is not necessarily a true reflection of reality. Instead, it is our representation of reality, and this is the input we base our decisions on. In essence we are limited to the tools nature has given us, and the natural way in which we make decisions is limited by the quality and accuracy of these tools."
--Dan Ariely
Predictably Irrational

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

The Rally Continues

Stocks gapped up this morning and then kind of petered out a little in afternoon trading, but the rally is still going. We all know that the weak dollar is influencing stock prices, in fact, the two markets are correlated pretty tightly right now. Stocks are trending to the point where I'm long and holding overnight positions again, even though everyone is suspect of this rally. The key is to trade the signals...not the opinions of others.

Here's an hourly chart of the S&P 500 index with the TLT Trender v2 and some annotations:Personally, I think that we'll see new highs by the end of the week and then probably a quick pop up as shorts have to cover, but take that for what it's worth as it's only an opinion that can change on a dime. Next up, here's the Eur/Usd hourly chart also with the TLT v2 indicator (green, red, blue bars) and some annotations:As always, the goal is to watch price action and let that dictate what the next move will be. I must admit, I've gotten quite bullish after seeing the market shrug off the unemployment numbers last Friday and then rally and hold those gains this week...smells like strength to me.

Happy Veteran's Day and I want to give a big THANK YOU to all those that have served and currently serve our country in the armed forces.

TLT

Monday, November 9, 2009

Compared to Last Week's Choppy Action, Today Was Smooth Sailing

Here's a 2-minute chart of the intraday action of SPY:Despite the smoothness in the indexes, one trade that I put on today failed to do much of anything...it rallied at the opening and then petered out. In fact, it didn't even get stopped out, it just sat flat. This can be frustrating on a day when the S&P is up 2.3% but I guess that happens every now and again. Just have to do my prep work for tomorrow and try again.

Hope everyone had a profitable day.

TLT

Sunday, November 8, 2009

The Importance of Focusing on Things You CAN Control

Here's an excellent post by Gman over at SMB Capital Blog that discusses the frustrations created by High Frequency Trading and the importance of focusing on things that you can control. Take a minute and read it...well worth the time.

The SMB blog is one that I've been following closely lately and have really been enjoying it. One feature of the blog is the videos that they record for StockTwits TV, like this one.

I hope everyone's had a great weekend and is ready for a profitable week of trading ahead.

TLT

Saturday, November 7, 2009

Weekly Wisdom Quote

"There are no certainties in this investment world, and where there are no certainties, you should begin by understanding yourself."
--James L. Fraser

Thursday, November 5, 2009

A Quick Day Trade: MASI

Here's a quick day trade that I put on this morning. I went long MASI about 10 minutes after the market open. This turned out to be a decent little trade, although I left some on the table...my initial profit target was $29 but I booked profits at $28.20. I need to work on letting profits run a little more. Overall, I'll give myself a B for this trade. Here's the chart with my entry and exit:Like I said yesterday, I'm only taking day trades right now until the market gives a better indication of which way is the path of least resistance. The market will need to hit some fresh highs or lows in order to give that indication.

Have a great Thursday!

TLT

Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Quick Look at the S&P 500

It's no secret that I've been bearish lately and today didn't provide much for me to change my stance. My TLT Trender v2 is still in buy mode, as indicated by the green bar on the chart below, but it is dangerously close to giving a sell signal. I'm currently in cash and only putting on some small day trades and this will continue until the market provides an indication of which way it's gonna go.

Here's a looks at the daily chart of the S&P 500 with some annotations:We'll need to see a stong up move, like a 2% move, in order for me to get bullish again, and conversly, some fresh lows will keep me bearish. Those non-farm payroll numbers on Friday may provide the catalyst we need in order to move one way or the other.

Good luck trading.

TLT

Monday, November 2, 2009

Bearish Signs Abound

Despite closing in positive territory, the markets were unable to mount an impressive rally...not a good sign with the presently oversold conditions. The averages were unable to break the current down trend that's present on the hourly chart.

Several things about the present market environment concern me, including: the recent dramatic rise in the vix, the continued selling off after the release of good news (both earnings and economic), the ugly technicals (i.e. moving averages crossing over and falling and MACD divergence/MACD crossing zero line on daily chart), and the upcoming fed interest rate decision. All of these things concern me to the point that I unloaded most of my portfolio today with the exception of one small tech stock (tsys) because I don't feel like I have any edge in this market. Here's a hourly and daily chart of SPY with some annotations:The dip buyers may appear and turn this little scarry slump into a great buying opportunity, but for the reasons stated above, I'm sitting out for now. If anything, I might dabble on the short side, but will probably only day trade for now, at least until I get a short sell signal on the indexes from my TLT Trender v2 system.

As for the fed interest rate decision on Wednesday, I'm having trouble anticipating ways that it will be positive for the market. At best, it will probably leave market participants complacent and more likely than not, it will give people a reason to sell. I don't want to be in the market if the fed decision positively impacts the dollar, for whatever reason, and everyone heads for the exit at the same time...that scenario would be ugly. As always time will tell and it's our job to sit back and let the market dictate what to do.

Be careful out there.

TLT

Sunday, November 1, 2009

A Different Kind of Quote this Week: Kerouac

"The only people for me are the mad ones, the ones who are mad to live, mad to talk, mad to be saved, desirous of everything at the same time, the ones who never yawn or say a commonplace thing, but burn, burn, burn, like fabulous yellow Roman candles exploding like spiders across the stars, and in the middle, you see the blue center-light pop, and everybody goes ahh..."
Jack Kerouac
On the Road