Where we really are in the market...

It feels like we've been brutally selling off since the market started trading this year..especially if you've been watching news, reading market commentary, etc.  I've had people that don't have anything to with the market, except for a $10k roth ira, start talking to me about the awfulness of the market and the price of oil. My gut feeling is that we've probably already seen the short term bottom or are very likely to it..both in oil and equities.

Take a look at this chart:

We are basically in the same zone that we were in after the post August sell off.  We basically sold to the same levels, it just took several weeks to accomplish rather than a couple of days like in August.  So why are people freaking out so much and why are they so certain that we're entering a bear market?  This is what I've been asking myself.  The answer is probably that we just haven't had much volatility over the last few years and there hasn't been that much to be concerned about.  Now we have oil crashing, china imploding, rates rising, and a war in the middle east that America and Europe are not really talking about or calling a war.  While I think we have seen a regime shift in the market and we will probably stay in an elevated volatility environment, I doubt that we're entering a big bear market..unless we have a huge market impacting event (terrorist attack, china actually implodes, sovereign default, etc.).  Short of any of those scenarios, I think we just see bigger chop in a bigger range.

Another chart worth looking at is a VIX chart with the ATR indicator.  The ATR of the VIX is basically the volatility of volatility, and this chart shows that a regime change has been in place since late August (the on going higher ATR levels) and it shows that a short term bottom might be in place (the blue circle showing the only significant decrease in the VIX's atr that we've seen this month).

So where is the market really at?  Probably in a big choppy range.  What am I looking for going forward?  I'm watching the zones in the SPY chart above..if we trade below the August/January lows, then we're probably going to see higher volatility and more of a sell off.  If we don't see new lows, then we'll probably drift up and down between the highs and lows of the zone until we clearly trade out of the zone.

Just note that active trading in a higher volatility environment is different than we've seen for several years.  Moves up and down reverse much faster and day to day follow through is limited.  While this presents great opportunities for nimble short term traders, it can be devastating for traders that are anticipating that their older trading patterns will still work.

Stay nimble and alert.

George

Sell and Sell Short...Maybe?

The market sold off hard today and the move happened on higher than average volume...this is significant. Several things happened for me as a result of today's action. First, I got stopped out of my TBT trade, which is not a big deal as taking losses is part of trading.

Second thing that happened is that I cashed in on my single biggest one day percentage gainer ever. Yesterday I bought some Vix call options (May 10 with a 19 strike). Today those call options were up over 200%...I rang the register at the 100% mark. This was a good trade but I must admit, I got lucky on the timing. I thought that the Vix might spike between now and May 10 (obviously b/c I bought some calls) but I did not expect the Vix to spike 30% in one day! This trade more than made up for the small TBT loss.

Last but not least, I established a short in financials yesterday via SKF. This trade is showing some potential as it's already up a decent amount and I've moved my stop up to above break even. Once again, I lucked out on timing on this one too. The big question now is, "Will we see any follow through to the downside?" Dip buyers have been coming into the market over the past few months and this dip might just be another buying opportunity for them. I have a feeling that we might see a little more of a correction on this round, but you never know.

There are a couple of things that I track every day, some proprietary indicators that I've been tracking and they are looking bearish. The first indicator is called the TLT Oscillator. It's just an oscillator that represents the general market. It ranges between -60 and +60 with 60 being a raging bull market and -60 being a major bear signal. Here's the chart showing the values from March 1, 2010:As you can see, today's reading was a +8...not terribly bearish. The thing that caught my eye is the drop...it dropped 20 points from yesterday (+28 to +8). The big sell short signal will be a drop below zero, so until then, shorting will be done in a more cautious manner and very stock/sector specific.

So I've determined that I want to be stock/sector specific and I've already mentioned that I'm short financials..how did I determine financials? Because I track buy and sell signals on the daily, hourly, and 15 minute time frames for 10 sectors and 30 stocks (3 stocks per sector) every day and financials are where the weakness is at. Here's a look at today's trend sheet for the sectors and stocks..note the sell signals in financials:I've got a couple of other indicators that I'd like to share but it's late and I've got to go to bed. We'll get to some others later but for now..be careful with the longs but don't get too aggressive on the short side either.

Hope everyone's having a great week so far.

TLT

My Trading Screens

I was asked recently about what I keep on my computer screens while trading and I thought that this would make a good post. These are the 3 screens that I keep up while day trading...I don't think this much is required all at once while trading in longer time frames (in fact, some day traders keep less than this on their screens while trading and would hate this much clutter). This is what works for me. It may change in the future, but I've kept this general setup for a little while now and have only changed minor things like changing my Up Volume v. Down Volume chart from lightspeed to thinkorswim, etc. (see below).

Screen Number 1: The Broker Software
As you can see above, this is my broker screen. This is all information that is provided by Light Speed Trading (my day trading broker). It is fully customizable and this is what I happen to be using right now. Some key points are the watchlists, the level 2 quotes in the lower left hand corner (which is where I also enter orders with hot keys), a 5 and 15 minute chart of whatever stock that I have pulled up in the level 2 box and a ticker alert in the top right hand corner (which wasn't working yesterday for some reason) that shows new highs and lows for stocks that I have entered into an alert list.

Screen Number 2: Trading ScreenThis screen is my actual trading screen. I use it to monitor the stocks that I'm trading or looking to trade. These charts are through thinkorswim's program...a very snazzy platform, especially for a retail program. I used to have eSignal, but the firm I trade with quit paying for it so I figured I'd try thinkorswim for a bit. So far its working pretty well. On the picture above, I have numbered my different chart windows and given a brief description or name for each chart. The most important thing about this screen is that charts 1-5 are linked, meaning that when a symbol is entered in one, it gets pulled up in all of the charts. I have these 5 charts setup to show me the multiple time frames that I use for trading.

A couple of other important things in this screen are the TICK chart, the VIX chart and the NYSE Advancers v. Decliners and the NYSE Advancing Volume v. Declining Volume. Then I've got two windows that I keep 15 minute charts of either ETFs (spy, qqqq, xlf, etc.) or sometimes I'll also keep a chart of a stock that I'm constantly watching (either to trade or to help manage my current trade). One last thing that I want to point out is that the 5 and 1 minute charts are small, the smallest on the screen. That's because I only use the 1 minute for exiting a piece of a trade and the five minute for pulling the trigger once there's a setup on the higher time frames. You can go crazy watching 5 and 1 minute charts for entries.

Screen Number 3: Futures and Forex Screen I keep this screen up at all times while trading. On it I have 15 minute charts of the ES futures contract (S&P emini), the NQ (Nasdaq 100) and the YM (the mini dow jones). I monitor these three markets to give me confirmation on break outs and just to keep an eye on the overall market. I also have down in the bottom left corner, a 15 minute chart of gold (YG). This is used the most when I'm trading a gold stock. Next to it is a 15 minute chart of the Eur/Usd pair as it's always good to know what this currency pair is doing. And finally, I keep the 30 year bond contract up in the bottom right hand. This isn't always up though, sometimes I'll put up oil or natural gas if I'm trading a stock that is involved with one of those commodities.

There you have it. Three screens that give me a lot of information with a quick glance.

Hope everyone is having a great week trading so far.

TLT

How to Recognize Intra-Day Buying Orderflow: My 1,2,3 Internals

As I'm typing this (roughly 11:00 a.m. central time) I'm watching what appears to be the end of a great short term buying opportunity. It could push higher, but the initial momentum is definitely over for now. This was one of the best upmoves I've seen in at least a week. Fortunately, I was able to recognize that I needed to be long and was able to catch a piece of the move, although I left a little on the table because booking profits lately has been very difficult due to the choppiness of the market.

How did I recognize the intra-day buying order flow? The big signal was the market internals. There are several things I monitor at all times while day trading and these are the big 3 (note that I didn't include the cumulative tick in this list...i always watch the tick as well but it's more common so I'll leave that alone for now). The big 3 are: 1) Advancers vs. Decliners, 2) Up Volume v. Down Volume, 3) the Vix vs. SPY. I plot all of these with intra-day line charts. Here's a screen shot from just little while ago:As you can see from the above pic, it was time to be long. In 1, the advance line was way above the decline and they were heading in opposite directions (bullish), in 2 the up volume was above the down volume and they were heading in opposite directions (bullish), and in 3, the Vix was maxed at the very bottom of the chart and the SPY was at the top (very bullish). When I see the 3 internals cross and start heading in opposite directions, I know to be ready to trade. On choppy days that are hard to trade, you'll see these cross back and forth several times...a sign that it's very choppy and you have to have low expectations of follow through if you trade at all.

Today I saw buying pick up and the internals got bullish and I knew it was time to stop shorting financials, which was chopping me around a little, and look at my list of potential longs. My big long of the day was NVDA. NVDA had awesome relative strength this morning as it was able to hold a gap up and then continue higher even as the market was heading lower. A stock with that kind of strength has the potential to pop if the market starts heading higher and that's what it did. All-in-all, it's been a good day and now I'm just going to sit back and watch for the rest of the day.

I hope everyone is having a profitable week/month so far and I'll be back with another post soon.

TLT

Action in the VIX

Watch the VIX levels. Look for the VIX to confirm moves in the equity indexes. It's at a pivotal rally point where it will either briskly fall back down (and stocks will keep rising) or it will break out of it's current range (and stocks will fall). All of the recent rallies have quickly fallen back down...will it happen again? Here's the daily and weekly charts:Have a great weekend!

TLT