It's been quite a while. No the blog is not dead, I've just been thinking about it and I decided to wait for some new and fresh things before I posted. My life has taken some good, yet intense, turns over the last few months..hence, the lack of posts.
Coming up..I've got some posts ready that will be appearing soon. The new direction of this blog has been inspired by a new (updated) direction in my trading, thinking and living. For starters, my wife and I had our first child towards the end of 2012..that sets everything in a new direction! Although a blessing, the introduction of child puts lots of things into perspective and trading is no exception. My trading and philosophy in regards to trading has shifted (not necessarily changed, matured might be a better way to look at it) and this blog will be reflecting those changes. Posts will be more infrequent..likely 1 or 2 a month but they will be more in depth and higher quality..at least I hope so.
Over the last year, I've been in the process of preparing for a child, building a new business, planning the start of a new business, and intensely defining, testing and systematizing my trading. I'm glad to say that after years of programming, testing, trial and error and much hard work, my systematized trading is finally coming on line. It was kind of the perfect storm of events to get me here.
I've been working on quantitative trading strategies for 4-5 years now and over the last year, a few pieces fell into place and some lights clicked on...a transformation if you will. As I was coming to grips with the transformation, as it's hard to let go of old beliefs and accept new ideas, I read Nassim Nicholas Taleb's new book, Antifragile. This was kind of the nail in the coffin, as I realized that what I was working towards and trying to explain to business partners, clients, potential clients, family members and anyone who would listen was very much in line with what Mr. Taleb is preaching in his new book. Fortunately, a man of such genius took the time to layout some very interesting and though provoking ideas in a well organized and thoughtful manner...now people like me get to piggy back on his ideas and explanations to our benefit. Thank you Mr. Taleb! Also, note that the Antifragile book is now at the top of my "Highly Recommended Reading" list..even above Market Wizards!
I'll be publishing a post within the next week that breaks down my new trading philosophy in more detail..some come back soon. The long and the short of it for those that can't wait or won't return is that periods of stability achieved through control will continue to dominate and with that stability will come jumps in volatility and chaos .my trading now takes advantage of that chaos by thriving on volatility. With politicians and central bankers getting more and more enmeshed in our financial system, this cycle will likely continue and even grow for some time.
In the past, I've always leaned towards trend following and momentum..concepts that do well with falling volatility and that follow the consensus. It's fun to buy when things are smoothly going up and everyone is happy..however, the returns are highly volatile and inconsistent over the long run. Before reading Antifragile, I started realizing that the most promising systems that I had were excelling during the worst years..they would under perform in 1998, 1999 and then knock it out of the park in 2000, 2001 and 2002. Interesting! Same happen in 2005, 2006 then 2007 and especially 2008, they began way outperforming. It has really shaken up many of my investing/trading beliefs. Okay, enough of my brief summary, more to come soon.
Hope everyone is having a great new year so far!
TLT
Coming up..I've got some posts ready that will be appearing soon. The new direction of this blog has been inspired by a new (updated) direction in my trading, thinking and living. For starters, my wife and I had our first child towards the end of 2012..that sets everything in a new direction! Although a blessing, the introduction of child puts lots of things into perspective and trading is no exception. My trading and philosophy in regards to trading has shifted (not necessarily changed, matured might be a better way to look at it) and this blog will be reflecting those changes. Posts will be more infrequent..likely 1 or 2 a month but they will be more in depth and higher quality..at least I hope so.
Over the last year, I've been in the process of preparing for a child, building a new business, planning the start of a new business, and intensely defining, testing and systematizing my trading. I'm glad to say that after years of programming, testing, trial and error and much hard work, my systematized trading is finally coming on line. It was kind of the perfect storm of events to get me here.
I've been working on quantitative trading strategies for 4-5 years now and over the last year, a few pieces fell into place and some lights clicked on...a transformation if you will. As I was coming to grips with the transformation, as it's hard to let go of old beliefs and accept new ideas, I read Nassim Nicholas Taleb's new book, Antifragile. This was kind of the nail in the coffin, as I realized that what I was working towards and trying to explain to business partners, clients, potential clients, family members and anyone who would listen was very much in line with what Mr. Taleb is preaching in his new book. Fortunately, a man of such genius took the time to layout some very interesting and though provoking ideas in a well organized and thoughtful manner...now people like me get to piggy back on his ideas and explanations to our benefit. Thank you Mr. Taleb! Also, note that the Antifragile book is now at the top of my "Highly Recommended Reading" list..even above Market Wizards!
I'll be publishing a post within the next week that breaks down my new trading philosophy in more detail..some come back soon. The long and the short of it for those that can't wait or won't return is that periods of stability achieved through control will continue to dominate and with that stability will come jumps in volatility and chaos .my trading now takes advantage of that chaos by thriving on volatility. With politicians and central bankers getting more and more enmeshed in our financial system, this cycle will likely continue and even grow for some time.
In the past, I've always leaned towards trend following and momentum..concepts that do well with falling volatility and that follow the consensus. It's fun to buy when things are smoothly going up and everyone is happy..however, the returns are highly volatile and inconsistent over the long run. Before reading Antifragile, I started realizing that the most promising systems that I had were excelling during the worst years..they would under perform in 1998, 1999 and then knock it out of the park in 2000, 2001 and 2002. Interesting! Same happen in 2005, 2006 then 2007 and especially 2008, they began way outperforming. It has really shaken up many of my investing/trading beliefs. Okay, enough of my brief summary, more to come soon.
Hope everyone is having a great new year so far!
TLT
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