Lets look at the above chart since everything I do is based off the chart. (Fundamentally, I have no clue what is going on at Alcon). First, look at the big yellow arrow. That's the initial sell signal, which occurred at the end of September or the very beginning of October. At that point, I would sell any long positions that I have.Second, notice the big red arrow and corresponding red circle. That point is the sell any position (which should have already happen but sometimes we're emotional humans) and then if you're a trader/investor that shorts stocks, look to short. In looking for a short, I like some different indicators to confirm that prices are heading lower and that momentum is picking up. At the time of the sell short signal, the MACD was showing a sell by a wide margin (blue circle and arrow) which is good and the BB width was picking up and hitting new highs...showing that volatility is picking up. I really like to see volatility hitting higher levels for both long and short entries. Given this combination of indicator readings, my strategy would have been to go short around the red arrow. The most import of those secondary indicators to me is the BB width hitting new highs. This tends to some what reliably indicate that there's a chance the break out will persist and the chart shows that it has so far.
Just my 2 cents...please keep in mind that it is always easier to look back with a sell bias and look for reasons you should have sold. That's why it's important to have pre-set/pre-tested criteria that follow well defined rules to get in and out of trades when the moves are actually happening and you don't have the benefit of hindsight.
ACL had a great run over the past couple of years, and really ever since it's IPO, but the trend is broken and only serious day traders/scalpers and fools will be trading the counter trends on a major down move like ACLs having right now. Remember: "The Trend is Your Friend"Good luck out there.
TLT
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