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Thursday, November 20, 2008

Opportunity is Nowhere

Markets tanked yesterday and it's finally starting to seem like complete panic has set in. The Dow broke below the 8,000 level and the S&P fell below 800. These were psychologically important levels that were not respected by the price action at all. Here's a chart of the S&P as of yesterday.
(*should read over extended)
Everybody and there mother is expecting some kind of short term rally because of the extreme readings in the indicators. Although we might see a big rally, I can't see it lasting right now. The technicals are looking like we should stay in free fall mode for a little longer if the market doesn't get back over the short term support levels.

As for the CNBC Portfolio Challenge, my bearishness has been paying off. As of the close yesterday, I was in the top 1.1% but this only gets me up to 4,544th place. Probably not going to win this week.
As for the title of this post, I stole that from Bill Williams...author of Trading Chaos (it's on my recommended reading list). This phrase is a little game he plays that shows 2 things: 1) Perception affects us all and 2) Opportunity tends to present itself when it looks like it isn't present. The phrase sounds pretty hopeless with the way it's written "Opportunity is Nowhere." However, if you look closely, there is a different way to look at it--"Opportunity is Now-here." Just a reminder that there's always 2 sides to every coin and our perceptions do get in the way every once in a while. Although the markets are terrible, you always have to remember that they look the worst right before a turn.

Good luck out there.

TLT

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